2nd Paris Terror Attack (2nd update) - Was Abdelhamid Abaaoud one of the masked Friday attackers?

Abdelhamid Abaaoud, 27, the alleged mastermind of last Friday's Paris mass terror attack was officially declared killed in a raid conducted by about 100 French anti-terror operatives earlier today.

Abdelhamid and five (5) others were allegedly holed up in a Saint-Denis apartment, in preparation for an attack at Charles de Gaulle International Airport and an unnamed mall.

Please take note of the Saint-Denis Terr headcount... Six (6).

The Saint-Denis six (6) plus the still unaccounted Bataclan Team driver, is exactly the same number of unaccounted Terrs I estimated in my first update below... Seven (7).

And I have now identified a possible reason why at least two (2) AK gunners in last Friday's attacks were wearing masks. First, one of them is Abdelhamid  himself. Second, the other one is a woman. Had they not concealed their identities, the French Government would have immediately figured-out that Abdulhamid is in the country, that he and the woman were not Lost Assassins, and therefore, they must be planning an even more barbaric follow-up operation.

Their ski masks managed to temporarily confuse the French Government as to the exact number of Terrs who directly participated in last Friday's terror attacks. Fortunately, the French Governmenf was immediately able to patch this intelligence gap with ELINT. And the rest, they say is history.

Six (6) down... One (1) to go...

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(overview - 1st update)

I pieced together the initial rough overview below based on published details of the attack as of Saturday morning EST.

While I correctly predicted that the driver who delivered the Bataclan Main Force is unaccounted for and will head for the border (French authorities are currently looking for him), there are several unanswered questions which, if taken as a whole, raise the possibility that more than eight (8) Terrs were involved in this dastardly act of terror:

1. What mode of transportation did the members of Diversionary Force North use to reach the Football Stadium?  If they were delivered by car, what happened to the delivery team consisting of probably two (2) Terrs?

2. What mode of transportation did the lone member of Diversionary Force South use to reach his target restaurant?

Was he merely dropped in the vicinity of the target restaurant by the Bataclan Main Force?

3. Why were the attackers of the two (2) restaurants to the north of Bataclan wearing masks?  Was it because theirs was not planned as a "lost" force?

Were they the same ones then who abandoned the car found by security forces with three (3) AKs inside?

If yes, were there actually two (2) car-based AK-armed main forces?  One attacked the two (2) restaurants to the immediate north of Bataclan (the Recovered main force), and the other one attacked the restaurant to the immediate south of Bataclan, and then Bataclan itself (the Lost main force)?

Based on the foregoing, therefore, other than the driver who delivered the Bataclan Main Force, an additional 4 to 6 Terrs who directly participated in the attack are maybe unaccounted for.  This brings the total number of Terrs who directly participated in the attack to a possible maximum of 14.

Since only seven (7) Terrs have been confirmed to have departed for the afterlife, another seven (7) might have lived to commit acts of terror for another day.

And that is a worrying thought...

**************************************************

(initial rough overview)

TERROR TEAM COMPOSITION:

1. Diversionary Force North (3 suicide bombers)

2. Diversionary Force South (1 suicide bomber)

3. Main Force (2 AK gunners, 1 security element, 1 driver, 1 getaway car)

Total Strength - Eight (8) terrorists

The members of the two (2) Diversionary Forces are fanatics with limited military experience.  They are essentially the cannon fodder needed to guarantee the success of the Main Force.

The members of the Main Force are also fanatics, but unlike the members of the Diversionary Forces, are probably combat veterans of highly-mobile hit-and-run desert warfare in Syria and/or Iraq.  They have hands-on experience in the mounted attack of multiple targets.

The Team has limited quantities of high explosives.  That's why AK firepower became the backbone of the Main Force.  This also explains the low number of casualties inflicted by the diversionary suicide bombers.

ATTACK SEQUENCE:

The three (3) Suicide Bombers of Diversionary Force North attacks the Football Stadium at regular intervals to tie down the  northern security forces of Paris (after all, the French President is inside the stadium).

The two (2) AK Gunners of the Main Force are driven to their 1st restaurant target north of the Bataclan Concert Hall. Empties two (2) 30-round AK magazines each (or a total of 120 rounds).  Total time on target, 20 to 30 seconds.  Moves to the next target.

The two (2) AK Gunners of the Main Force are driven to their 2nd restaurant target (still) north of the Bataclan Concert Hall. Empties two (2) 30-round AK magazines each (or a total of 120 rounds).  Total time spent on target, 20 to 30 seconds.  Moves to the next target.

The two (2) AK Gunners of the Main Force are driven to their 3rd restaurant target (this time) south of the Bataclan Concert Hall. Empties two (2) 30-round AK magazines each (or a total of 120 rounds).  Total time spent on target, 20 to 30 seconds.  Moves to the Main Target, Bataclan Concert Hall.

The lone Suicide Bomber of Diversion  Force South attacks a restaurant to the far south of Bataclan Concert Hall to prevent the southern security units of Paris from immediately coming to the aid of the Main Target.

The two (2) AK Gunners and the lone Security Element of the Main Force are dropped-off at the Main Target, Bataclan Concert Hall.  The three (3) Main Force members secure Bataclan Concert Hall, and dig in for the expected assault of French security forces.

The Main Force Driver dumps the Getaway Car and heads for the border...

#WeStandWithParis

#ParisAttacks

#LooneyTerrWatch

2nd Paris Terror Attack (updated overview) - more than 8 Terrs were directly involved?

I pieced together the initial rough overview below based on published details of the attack as of Saturday morning EST.

While I correctly predicted that the driver who delivered the Bataclan Main Force is unaccounted for and will head for the border (French authorities are currently looking for him), there are several unanswered questions which, if taken as a whole, raise the possibility that more than eight (8) Terrs were involved in this dastardly act of terror:

1. What mode of transportation did the members of Diversionary Force North use to reach the Football Stadium?  If they were delivered by car, what happened to the delivery team consisting of probably two (2) Terrs?

2. What mode of transportation did the lone member of Diversionary Force South use to reach his target restaurant?

Was he merely dropped in the vicinity of the target restaurant by the Bataclan Main Force?

3. Why were the attackers of the two (2) restaurants to the north of Bataclan wearing masks?  Was it because theirs was not planned as a "lost" force?

Were they the same ones then who abandoned the car found by security forces with three (3) AKs inside?

If yes, were there actually two (2) car-based AK-armed main forces?  One attacked the two (2) restaurants to the immediate north of Bataclan (the Recovered main force), and the other one attacked the restaurant to the immediate south of Bataclan, and then Bataclan itself (the Lost main force)?

Based on the foregoing, therefore, other than the driver who delivered the Bataclan Main Force, an additional 4 to 6 Terrs who directly participated in the attack are maybe unaccounted for.  This brings the total number of Terrs who directly participated in the attack to a possible maximum of 14.

Since only seven (7) Terrs have been confirmed to have departed for the afterlife, another seven (7) might have lived to commit acts of terror for another day.

And that is a worrying thought...

**************************************************

(initial rough overview)

TERROR TEAM COMPOSITION:

1. Diversionary Force North (3 suicide bombers)

2. Diversionary Force South (1 suicide bomber)

3. Main Force (2 AK gunners, 1 security element, 1 driver, 1 getaway car)

Total Strength - Eight (8) terrorists

The members of the two (2) Diversionary Forces are fanatics with limited military experience.  They are essentially the cannon fodder needed to guarantee the success of the Main Force.

The members of the Main Force are also fanatics, but unlike the members of the Diversionary Forces, are probably combat veterans of highly-mobile hit-and-run desert warfare in Syria and/or Iraq.  They have hands-on experience in the mounted attack of multiple targets.

The Team has limited quantities of high explosives.  That's why AK firepower became the backbone of the Main Force.  This also explains the low number of casualties inflicted by the diversionary suicide bombers.

ATTACK SEQUENCE:

The three (3) Suicide Bombers of Diversionary Force North attacks the Football Stadium at regular intervals to tie down the  northern security forces of Paris (after all, the French President is inside the stadium).

The two (2) AK Gunners of the Main Force are driven to their 1st restaurant target north of the Bataclan Concert Hall. Empties two (2) 30-round AK magazines each (or a total of 120 rounds).  Total time on target, 20 to 30 seconds.  Moves to the next target.

The two (2) AK Gunners of the Main Force are driven to their 2nd restaurant target (still) north of the Bataclan Concert Hall. Empties two (2) 30-round AK magazines each (or a total of 120 rounds).  Total time spent on target, 20 to 30 seconds.  Moves to the next target.

The two (2) AK Gunners of the Main Force are driven to their 3rd restaurant target (this time) south of the Bataclan Concert Hall. Empties two (2) 30-round AK magazines each (or a total of 120 rounds).  Total time spent on target, 20 to 30 seconds.  Moves to the Main Target, Bataclan Concert Hall.

The lone Suicide Bomber of Diversion  Force South attacks a restaurant to the far south of Bataclan Concert Hall to prevent the southern security units of Paris from immediately coming to the aid of the Main Target.

The two (2) AK Gunners and the lone Security Element of the Main Force are dropped-off at the Main Target, Bataclan Concert Hall.  The three (3) Main Force members secure Bataclan Concert Hall, and dig in for the expected assault of French security forces.

The Main Force Driver dumps the Getaway Car and heads for the border...

#WeStandWithParis

#ParisAttacks

#LooneyTerrWatch

2nd Paris Terror Attack - an initial rough overview

The Fog of War still obscures certain details of the latest Paris terror attack, but here is the picture that has emerged so far.

TERROR TEAM COMPOSITION:

1. Diversionary Force North (3 suicide bombers)

2. Diversionary Force South (1 suicide bomber)

3. Main Force (2 AK gunners, 1 security element, 1 driver, 1 getaway car)

Total Strength - Eight (8) terrorists

The members of the two (2) Diversionary Forces are fanatics with limited military experience.  They are essentially the cannon fodder needed to guarantee the success of the Main Force.

The members of the Main Force are also fanatics, but unlike the members of the Diversionary Forces, are probably combat veterans of highly-mobile hit-and-run desert warfare in Syria and/or Iraq.  They have hands-on experience in the mounted attack of multiple targets.

The Team has limited quantities of high explosives.  That's why AK firepower became the backbone of the Main Force.  This also explains the low number of casualties inflicted by the diversionary suicide bombers.

ATTACK SEQUENCE:

The three (3) Suicide Bombers of Diversionary Force North attacks the Football Stadium at regular intervals to tie down the  northern security forces of Paris (after all, the French President is inside the stadium).

The two (2) AK Gunners of the Main Force are driven to their 1st restaurant target north of the Bataclan Concert Hall. Empties two (2) 30-round AK magazines each (or a total of 120 rounds).  Total time on target, 20 to 30 seconds.  Moves to the next target.

The two (2) AK Gunners of the Main Force are driven to their 2nd restaurant target (still) north of the Bataclan Concert Hall. Empties two (2) 30-round AK magazines each (or a total of 120 rounds).  Total time spent on target, 20 to 30 seconds.  Moves to the next target.

The two (2) AK Gunners of the Main Force are driven to their 3rd restaurant target (this time) south of the Bataclan Concert Hall. Empties two (2) 30-round AK magazines each (or a total of 120 rounds).  Total time spent on target, 20 to 30 seconds.  Moves to the Main Target, Bataclan Concert Hall.

The lone Suicide Bomber of Diversion  Force South attacks a restaurant to the far south of Bataclan Concert Hall to prevent the southern security units of Paris from immediately coming to the aid of the Main Target.

The two (2) AK Gunners and the lone Security Element of the Main Force are dropped-off at the Main Target, Bataclan Concert Hall.  The three (3) Main Force members secure Bataclan Concert Hall, and dig in for the expected assault of French security forces.

The Main Force Driver dumps the Getaway Car and heads for the border...

#WeStandWithParis

#ParisAttacks

#LooneyTerrWatch

Did security concerns spook Putin from coming to Manila?

Since Russia has the second most powerful military in the Pacific (and the world for that matter), it was quite surprising that Russian President Vladimir Putin canceled his attendance at next week's APEC Leaders' Meeting in Manila.

My initial suspicion was that this was somehow related to his military (mis)adventures in Crimea and Syria.

US President Barack Obama has confirmed his attendance.  The possibility that Putin will be put on the spot on Crimea and Syria by the US during the meeting, therefore, is definitely there.  By not attending the meeting, Putin has effectively abandoned China's Xi Jinping (and his fake islands) as the lone occupant of the roasting table.

Yesterday's mass terror attacks in Paris, however, made me question the soundness of this hypothesis.

By now, it appears that it is already a foregone conclusion that the Russian airliner which crashed on the Sinai Desert  was brought down by a bomb.  The looney terrs are out to get Russians.

Since Russian ELINT (Electronic Intelligence) capabilities are at par with that of the US, could it be possible that the Russians have heard significant electromic chatter on an impending massive terrorist attack on a European target?  And out of an abundance of caution, considered Putin as the most likely candidate?

Now, has the threat already passed after what just happened to France, or are there more just beyond the horizon?

The anti-terror apparatus of the Philippine Government should be 300% on their toes next week...

#APEC2015

#WestPhilippineSea

#OccupyPanatagShoal

#ChinaGoHome

#BarackObama

#VladimirPutin

#LooneyTerrWatch

#ParisAttacks

Did Putin just painted a bullseye on all Russians worldwide?

Press releases and rebuttals are still flying back and forth in the evening news on what caused that Russian airliner to crash in the Sinai Desert.

It was a bomb.  It was not a bomb.

Washington is now 99.9% sure that it was a bomb.

Moscow is still in full public denial.

But the opinion given by one of the mourners at a St. Petersburg memorial for the 224 victims probably sums up best the prevailing conventional wisdom:

"Eventually, they will conclude that this was a terrorist act."

I understand Moscow's hesitation in accepting the bomb theory.  A terrorist act will immediately douse cold water on Putin's much-praised military adventure into Syria.  And there is the logistical question of more than 100,000 Russian tourists stranded in Egypt.  But eventually, Putin will have to face up to the facts.

 

While some people cheered as the first Russian bombs rained down on the perceived enemies of Assad in Syria, I was asking myself:

"Had Putin completely lost his mind?"

Bouyed with his success in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, he waded into Syria like some comicbook superhero.

As a former KBG operative, I know that his skills in making cold geopolitical decisions are top-notch.  But this time around, his grasp might have exceeded his reach.

There are 1.6 billion Muslims worldwide.  Based on a conservative estimate, 70% of them are Sunnis.  That's about 1.1 billion.  If Putin's military adventure in Syria managed to anger 10% of them, that will be about 110 million.  If only 1% of that 110 million has the willingness and the means to vent-out such anger, that will be 1.1 million.  There might potentially be 1.1 million Sunni Muslims out there looking for payback against Russians!

In an instant, the whole world has become an unsafe place for Russians.

Putin should rethink his Syrian military adventure...

#RussianAirliner

#LooneyTerrWatch

#Putin