We might have dodged a much bigger one at San Bernardino...

When I first heard that the Terrorists wore masks and made a quick getaway, the first thought that crossed my mind was: "This is just a Diversion. The Main Event is yet to come."

My hunch is that they will try to head for Downtown LA. Obviously, it has much bigger propaganda value than San Bernardino.

But it appears that the Alert Citizen who was able to identify the Terrorist Couple's getaway vehicle anabled the LEOs to effectively block all approaches to LA from San Bernardino. And forced the Terrorist Couple to temporarily lie low.

Their plan was probably to wait for darkness first, then proceed to their Primary Target. Which I suspect was Downtown LA.

But once again, an Alert Citizen spoiled their plan. Within an hour of the massacre, LEOs already received a tip that they should look for a bearded man named Farook. This led them to the Terrorist Couple's residence and forced the latter to make a run for it. We all saw how badly that move went for the Terrorist Couple.

So despite the horrendous loss of life at San Bernardino, I still belive that we were lucky to have dodged a much bigger massacre. And this was all made possible by the following:

1. The Alert Citizen who gave the lead that the getaway vehicle of the Attackers was a Black SUV;

2. The Alert Citizen who gave the lead that LEOs should look for a bearded man named Farook;

3. The LEOs, for their timely and effective response to the leads they received, and finally;

4. The County Environmental Health Department Employees, who may have unintentionally diverted the attention of the Terrorist Couple from their Primary Target. Of course, events could have been much more different if any of the Employees were carrying (but that is a topic worth discussing on another day).

You are all Heroes!

Thank you everyone for your service!

#WeStandWithSanBernardino #SanBernardino #2ndAmendment #SecondAmendment #GunRights  #CounterTerrorism #LooneyTerrWatch

2nd Paris Terror Attack (2nd update) - Was Abdelhamid Abaaoud one of the masked Friday attackers?

Abdelhamid Abaaoud, 27, the alleged mastermind of last Friday's Paris mass terror attack was officially declared killed in a raid conducted by about 100 French anti-terror operatives earlier today.

Abdelhamid and five (5) others were allegedly holed up in a Saint-Denis apartment, in preparation for an attack at Charles de Gaulle International Airport and an unnamed mall.

Please take note of the Saint-Denis Terr headcount... Six (6).

The Saint-Denis six (6) plus the still unaccounted Bataclan Team driver, is exactly the same number of unaccounted Terrs I estimated in my first update below... Seven (7).

And I have now identified a possible reason why at least two (2) AK gunners in last Friday's attacks were wearing masks. First, one of them is Abdelhamid  himself. Second, the other one is a woman. Had they not concealed their identities, the French Government would have immediately figured-out that Abdulhamid is in the country, that he and the woman were not Lost Assassins, and therefore, they must be planning an even more barbaric follow-up operation.

Their ski masks managed to temporarily confuse the French Government as to the exact number of Terrs who directly participated in last Friday's terror attacks. Fortunately, the French Governmenf was immediately able to patch this intelligence gap with ELINT. And the rest, they say is history.

Six (6) down... One (1) to go...

*************************************************

(overview - 1st update)

I pieced together the initial rough overview below based on published details of the attack as of Saturday morning EST.

While I correctly predicted that the driver who delivered the Bataclan Main Force is unaccounted for and will head for the border (French authorities are currently looking for him), there are several unanswered questions which, if taken as a whole, raise the possibility that more than eight (8) Terrs were involved in this dastardly act of terror:

1. What mode of transportation did the members of Diversionary Force North use to reach the Football Stadium?  If they were delivered by car, what happened to the delivery team consisting of probably two (2) Terrs?

2. What mode of transportation did the lone member of Diversionary Force South use to reach his target restaurant?

Was he merely dropped in the vicinity of the target restaurant by the Bataclan Main Force?

3. Why were the attackers of the two (2) restaurants to the north of Bataclan wearing masks?  Was it because theirs was not planned as a "lost" force?

Were they the same ones then who abandoned the car found by security forces with three (3) AKs inside?

If yes, were there actually two (2) car-based AK-armed main forces?  One attacked the two (2) restaurants to the immediate north of Bataclan (the Recovered main force), and the other one attacked the restaurant to the immediate south of Bataclan, and then Bataclan itself (the Lost main force)?

Based on the foregoing, therefore, other than the driver who delivered the Bataclan Main Force, an additional 4 to 6 Terrs who directly participated in the attack are maybe unaccounted for.  This brings the total number of Terrs who directly participated in the attack to a possible maximum of 14.

Since only seven (7) Terrs have been confirmed to have departed for the afterlife, another seven (7) might have lived to commit acts of terror for another day.

And that is a worrying thought...

**************************************************

(initial rough overview)

TERROR TEAM COMPOSITION:

1. Diversionary Force North (3 suicide bombers)

2. Diversionary Force South (1 suicide bomber)

3. Main Force (2 AK gunners, 1 security element, 1 driver, 1 getaway car)

Total Strength - Eight (8) terrorists

The members of the two (2) Diversionary Forces are fanatics with limited military experience.  They are essentially the cannon fodder needed to guarantee the success of the Main Force.

The members of the Main Force are also fanatics, but unlike the members of the Diversionary Forces, are probably combat veterans of highly-mobile hit-and-run desert warfare in Syria and/or Iraq.  They have hands-on experience in the mounted attack of multiple targets.

The Team has limited quantities of high explosives.  That's why AK firepower became the backbone of the Main Force.  This also explains the low number of casualties inflicted by the diversionary suicide bombers.

ATTACK SEQUENCE:

The three (3) Suicide Bombers of Diversionary Force North attacks the Football Stadium at regular intervals to tie down the  northern security forces of Paris (after all, the French President is inside the stadium).

The two (2) AK Gunners of the Main Force are driven to their 1st restaurant target north of the Bataclan Concert Hall. Empties two (2) 30-round AK magazines each (or a total of 120 rounds).  Total time on target, 20 to 30 seconds.  Moves to the next target.

The two (2) AK Gunners of the Main Force are driven to their 2nd restaurant target (still) north of the Bataclan Concert Hall. Empties two (2) 30-round AK magazines each (or a total of 120 rounds).  Total time spent on target, 20 to 30 seconds.  Moves to the next target.

The two (2) AK Gunners of the Main Force are driven to their 3rd restaurant target (this time) south of the Bataclan Concert Hall. Empties two (2) 30-round AK magazines each (or a total of 120 rounds).  Total time spent on target, 20 to 30 seconds.  Moves to the Main Target, Bataclan Concert Hall.

The lone Suicide Bomber of Diversion  Force South attacks a restaurant to the far south of Bataclan Concert Hall to prevent the southern security units of Paris from immediately coming to the aid of the Main Target.

The two (2) AK Gunners and the lone Security Element of the Main Force are dropped-off at the Main Target, Bataclan Concert Hall.  The three (3) Main Force members secure Bataclan Concert Hall, and dig in for the expected assault of French security forces.

The Main Force Driver dumps the Getaway Car and heads for the border...

#WeStandWithParis

#ParisAttacks

#LooneyTerrWatch

2nd Paris Terror Attack (updated overview) - more than 8 Terrs were directly involved?

I pieced together the initial rough overview below based on published details of the attack as of Saturday morning EST.

While I correctly predicted that the driver who delivered the Bataclan Main Force is unaccounted for and will head for the border (French authorities are currently looking for him), there are several unanswered questions which, if taken as a whole, raise the possibility that more than eight (8) Terrs were involved in this dastardly act of terror:

1. What mode of transportation did the members of Diversionary Force North use to reach the Football Stadium?  If they were delivered by car, what happened to the delivery team consisting of probably two (2) Terrs?

2. What mode of transportation did the lone member of Diversionary Force South use to reach his target restaurant?

Was he merely dropped in the vicinity of the target restaurant by the Bataclan Main Force?

3. Why were the attackers of the two (2) restaurants to the north of Bataclan wearing masks?  Was it because theirs was not planned as a "lost" force?

Were they the same ones then who abandoned the car found by security forces with three (3) AKs inside?

If yes, were there actually two (2) car-based AK-armed main forces?  One attacked the two (2) restaurants to the immediate north of Bataclan (the Recovered main force), and the other one attacked the restaurant to the immediate south of Bataclan, and then Bataclan itself (the Lost main force)?

Based on the foregoing, therefore, other than the driver who delivered the Bataclan Main Force, an additional 4 to 6 Terrs who directly participated in the attack are maybe unaccounted for.  This brings the total number of Terrs who directly participated in the attack to a possible maximum of 14.

Since only seven (7) Terrs have been confirmed to have departed for the afterlife, another seven (7) might have lived to commit acts of terror for another day.

And that is a worrying thought...

**************************************************

(initial rough overview)

TERROR TEAM COMPOSITION:

1. Diversionary Force North (3 suicide bombers)

2. Diversionary Force South (1 suicide bomber)

3. Main Force (2 AK gunners, 1 security element, 1 driver, 1 getaway car)

Total Strength - Eight (8) terrorists

The members of the two (2) Diversionary Forces are fanatics with limited military experience.  They are essentially the cannon fodder needed to guarantee the success of the Main Force.

The members of the Main Force are also fanatics, but unlike the members of the Diversionary Forces, are probably combat veterans of highly-mobile hit-and-run desert warfare in Syria and/or Iraq.  They have hands-on experience in the mounted attack of multiple targets.

The Team has limited quantities of high explosives.  That's why AK firepower became the backbone of the Main Force.  This also explains the low number of casualties inflicted by the diversionary suicide bombers.

ATTACK SEQUENCE:

The three (3) Suicide Bombers of Diversionary Force North attacks the Football Stadium at regular intervals to tie down the  northern security forces of Paris (after all, the French President is inside the stadium).

The two (2) AK Gunners of the Main Force are driven to their 1st restaurant target north of the Bataclan Concert Hall. Empties two (2) 30-round AK magazines each (or a total of 120 rounds).  Total time on target, 20 to 30 seconds.  Moves to the next target.

The two (2) AK Gunners of the Main Force are driven to their 2nd restaurant target (still) north of the Bataclan Concert Hall. Empties two (2) 30-round AK magazines each (or a total of 120 rounds).  Total time spent on target, 20 to 30 seconds.  Moves to the next target.

The two (2) AK Gunners of the Main Force are driven to their 3rd restaurant target (this time) south of the Bataclan Concert Hall. Empties two (2) 30-round AK magazines each (or a total of 120 rounds).  Total time spent on target, 20 to 30 seconds.  Moves to the Main Target, Bataclan Concert Hall.

The lone Suicide Bomber of Diversion  Force South attacks a restaurant to the far south of Bataclan Concert Hall to prevent the southern security units of Paris from immediately coming to the aid of the Main Target.

The two (2) AK Gunners and the lone Security Element of the Main Force are dropped-off at the Main Target, Bataclan Concert Hall.  The three (3) Main Force members secure Bataclan Concert Hall, and dig in for the expected assault of French security forces.

The Main Force Driver dumps the Getaway Car and heads for the border...

#WeStandWithParis

#ParisAttacks

#LooneyTerrWatch

2nd Paris Terror Attack - an initial rough overview

The Fog of War still obscures certain details of the latest Paris terror attack, but here is the picture that has emerged so far.

TERROR TEAM COMPOSITION:

1. Diversionary Force North (3 suicide bombers)

2. Diversionary Force South (1 suicide bomber)

3. Main Force (2 AK gunners, 1 security element, 1 driver, 1 getaway car)

Total Strength - Eight (8) terrorists

The members of the two (2) Diversionary Forces are fanatics with limited military experience.  They are essentially the cannon fodder needed to guarantee the success of the Main Force.

The members of the Main Force are also fanatics, but unlike the members of the Diversionary Forces, are probably combat veterans of highly-mobile hit-and-run desert warfare in Syria and/or Iraq.  They have hands-on experience in the mounted attack of multiple targets.

The Team has limited quantities of high explosives.  That's why AK firepower became the backbone of the Main Force.  This also explains the low number of casualties inflicted by the diversionary suicide bombers.

ATTACK SEQUENCE:

The three (3) Suicide Bombers of Diversionary Force North attacks the Football Stadium at regular intervals to tie down the  northern security forces of Paris (after all, the French President is inside the stadium).

The two (2) AK Gunners of the Main Force are driven to their 1st restaurant target north of the Bataclan Concert Hall. Empties two (2) 30-round AK magazines each (or a total of 120 rounds).  Total time on target, 20 to 30 seconds.  Moves to the next target.

The two (2) AK Gunners of the Main Force are driven to their 2nd restaurant target (still) north of the Bataclan Concert Hall. Empties two (2) 30-round AK magazines each (or a total of 120 rounds).  Total time spent on target, 20 to 30 seconds.  Moves to the next target.

The two (2) AK Gunners of the Main Force are driven to their 3rd restaurant target (this time) south of the Bataclan Concert Hall. Empties two (2) 30-round AK magazines each (or a total of 120 rounds).  Total time spent on target, 20 to 30 seconds.  Moves to the Main Target, Bataclan Concert Hall.

The lone Suicide Bomber of Diversion  Force South attacks a restaurant to the far south of Bataclan Concert Hall to prevent the southern security units of Paris from immediately coming to the aid of the Main Target.

The two (2) AK Gunners and the lone Security Element of the Main Force are dropped-off at the Main Target, Bataclan Concert Hall.  The three (3) Main Force members secure Bataclan Concert Hall, and dig in for the expected assault of French security forces.

The Main Force Driver dumps the Getaway Car and heads for the border...

#WeStandWithParis

#ParisAttacks

#LooneyTerrWatch

Did security concerns spook Putin from coming to Manila?

Since Russia has the second most powerful military in the Pacific (and the world for that matter), it was quite surprising that Russian President Vladimir Putin canceled his attendance at next week's APEC Leaders' Meeting in Manila.

My initial suspicion was that this was somehow related to his military (mis)adventures in Crimea and Syria.

US President Barack Obama has confirmed his attendance.  The possibility that Putin will be put on the spot on Crimea and Syria by the US during the meeting, therefore, is definitely there.  By not attending the meeting, Putin has effectively abandoned China's Xi Jinping (and his fake islands) as the lone occupant of the roasting table.

Yesterday's mass terror attacks in Paris, however, made me question the soundness of this hypothesis.

By now, it appears that it is already a foregone conclusion that the Russian airliner which crashed on the Sinai Desert  was brought down by a bomb.  The looney terrs are out to get Russians.

Since Russian ELINT (Electronic Intelligence) capabilities are at par with that of the US, could it be possible that the Russians have heard significant electromic chatter on an impending massive terrorist attack on a European target?  And out of an abundance of caution, considered Putin as the most likely candidate?

Now, has the threat already passed after what just happened to France, or are there more just beyond the horizon?

The anti-terror apparatus of the Philippine Government should be 300% on their toes next week...

#APEC2015

#WestPhilippineSea

#OccupyPanatagShoal

#ChinaGoHome

#BarackObama

#VladimirPutin

#LooneyTerrWatch

#ParisAttacks

Did Putin just painted a bullseye on all Russians worldwide?

Press releases and rebuttals are still flying back and forth in the evening news on what caused that Russian airliner to crash in the Sinai Desert.

It was a bomb.  It was not a bomb.

Washington is now 99.9% sure that it was a bomb.

Moscow is still in full public denial.

But the opinion given by one of the mourners at a St. Petersburg memorial for the 224 victims probably sums up best the prevailing conventional wisdom:

"Eventually, they will conclude that this was a terrorist act."

I understand Moscow's hesitation in accepting the bomb theory.  A terrorist act will immediately douse cold water on Putin's much-praised military adventure into Syria.  And there is the logistical question of more than 100,000 Russian tourists stranded in Egypt.  But eventually, Putin will have to face up to the facts.

 

While some people cheered as the first Russian bombs rained down on the perceived enemies of Assad in Syria, I was asking myself:

"Had Putin completely lost his mind?"

Bouyed with his success in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, he waded into Syria like some comicbook superhero.

As a former KBG operative, I know that his skills in making cold geopolitical decisions are top-notch.  But this time around, his grasp might have exceeded his reach.

There are 1.6 billion Muslims worldwide.  Based on a conservative estimate, 70% of them are Sunnis.  That's about 1.1 billion.  If Putin's military adventure in Syria managed to anger 10% of them, that will be about 110 million.  If only 1% of that 110 million has the willingness and the means to vent-out such anger, that will be 1.1 million.  There might potentially be 1.1 million Sunni Muslims out there looking for payback against Russians!

In an instant, the whole world has become an unsafe place for Russians.

Putin should rethink his Syrian military adventure...

#RussianAirliner

#LooneyTerrWatch

#Putin

3 Million French citizens made a stand against terrorism today - givethem the means to do it!

 

3 million French citizens marched for the victims of the Paris Wolf Pack attacks today, probably the biggest in the recent history of the country.  In Paris alone, 1.5 million people marched, including more than 40 Heads of State (unfortunately, POTUS was not able to make it).

 

This tremendous outpouring of support is heartwarming.

 

But how the Powers-That-Be will use this new-found well-spring of popular support might be another story.

 

Will the French Government use this as political capital to liberalize France's strict gun control laws and provide French citizens with better means to defend themselves, their families, and their country?

 

Or, will it take the usual low road, and use this opportunity to further curtail the civil liberties of its citizenry?

 

I honestly want to be hopeful.

 

But...

#2ndAmendment #SecondAmendment #GunRights #Counterterrorism #CharlieHebdo #ParisAttacks

  

What is the best deterrence to a Paris-style Wolf Pack terror attack?

 

I just watched a talking head of a major TV network pose the same question to a former intelligence operative.  And his answer was to improve the capabilities of law enforcement in terms of intelligence gathering, as well as weaponry.

 

Mr. Ex-Intelligence Operative then (correctly) pointed-out that French LEOs were horribly out-gunned during the opening salvos of the Paris attacks.  Obviously, there is room for weaponry upgrades, as far as French LEOs are concerned.

 

He further suggested that, in view of the apparent total failure of the French anti-terror intelligence network to detect the attacks, there might be a need to expand further the scope of anti-terror surveillance.

 

Ms. TV Talking Head immediately shot down the second suggestion.  She (also correctly) pointed out that the civil rights degradation tolerance of the French public may have already reached its saturation point with the current level of anti-terror surveillance.  Any further expansion of the same will be interpreted as a direct assault on civil liberties, and will surely be met with popular resistance.

 

A series of back-and-forth exchange of opinions between the two then ensued.

 

As they continue to slice-and-dice the issue, however, it dawned on me that they appear to be subtly side-stepping the most obvious solution...  Arm the citizenry!

 

Take a cue from the Israelis.  They have been dealing with this problem for the last 40 years or so.

 

Take a close look at the above picture... close your eyes... and imagine...

 

Could a Paris-style Wolf Pack terror attack gain much ground under such scenario?

 

I don't think so...

 

A Charlie Hebdo copycat attack? - gunman opens fire at unsuspecting Paris LEOs

 

Less than 24 hours after the "Wolf Pack" attack at Charlie Hebdo, another gunman opened fire at two Paris LEOs investigating a traffic accident.  One female LEO was KIA.  Her male colleague was WIA.

The gunman was allegedly armed with a submachine gun and was wearing body armor.
 

Because of France's very strict gun control laws, French LEOs normally do not carry guns.  If this was true in this particular case, then the two never had a chance.

 

There is no official confirmation yet on whether this was another terrorist attack.  And there would probably be none for quite some time.  A copycat act tends to attract another copycat act.  The last thing France needs at this time is a chain reaction of terror.

 

Gun rights advocates are fond of hammering in the obvious by saying: "If you outlaw guns, only outlaws will have guns."

 

Maybe the time has come to change this statement to keep up with the times...

 

"If you outlaw guns, only terrorists will have guns."


#2ndAmendment #SecondAmendment #GunRights #Counterterrorism #CharlieHebdo #ParisAttacks

 

 

Lessons learned from the Paris Charlie Hebdo terrorist attack...

1. The perpetrators will be the usual suspects.

Just like in the Sydney attack, it is now beginning to emerge that the perpetrators of this horrific act have all popped-up in various anti-terror radar screens in the not-so-distant past. How they all managed to elude serious jail time... is something that eludes me too... 

 

2. The most devastating terror attacks are those made by a "Wolf Pack", and not those by a "Lone Wolf".

 

Lod Airport, 1972... Mumbai, 2008... Nairobi, 2013... Paris, 2015... 

3. The Jihadist conflicts of the Middle East are just "boarding schools" for Western-bred terrorists.

Once they get their "combat diploma" fighting for the Legion(s) of Losers in the Middle East, these malcontents will come home to roost. 

3. Unless the when, where, and how of a terror attack can be determined with sufficient lead time, Law Enforcement protection will not be enough.

In fairness to the French Government, they have provided Law Enforcement protection to the people of Charlie Hebdo.  But the casualty count clearly shows that the level of protection provided was not enough.  And two (2) LEOs paid for such miscalculation with their lives...

4. People will still find a way to acquire guns, even in a gun control state.

Just like Australia, France has very strict gun control laws.  Yet, these terrorists managed to arm themselves with AK assault rifles (and even a rocket launcher, if initial reports are accurate).

5. Only an armed population has a fighting chance of minimizing the casualties from a "Wolf Pack" terror attack.
 

Just imagine if half of the people of Charlie Hebdo were carrying.  The results would surely have been much more different.
 

6. Finally, although Freedom of Expression is a guaranteed civil right, publicly making fun of somebody else's Holy Man is not just a sensible act.

Let us use this horrific crime, therefore, as an opportunity to introspect... on the pros and cons of making somebody else's Holy Man the object of public amusement...

#WeStandWithParis
#2ndAmendment

#SecondAmendment 

#GunRights 

#CounterTerrorism

#CharlieHebdo 

#ParisAttacks

#LooneyTerrWatch

Paris attacked... 12 killed...

 

The office of satirical French magazine, Charlie Hebdo was attacked by 3 gunmen with AKs (and allegedly, a rocket launcher).  The current casualty count is 12 KIAs and 11 WIAs.

This is obviously a terrorist attack.

There is no word yet on who the perpetrators are (and their curent fate)... but I am 100% sure that these are the Usual Suspects...

Watch out for copycats...


#2ndAmendment #SecondAmendment #GunRights #Counterterrorism #CharlieHebdo #ParisAttacks

Air Asia QZ8501 - the Surabaya terror alert and other confusing news

 

It appears that Air Asia QZ8501 did veer to the right of its flight path.  But by not that much.

 

Which is actually good news (if one could actually call it that) because had it reached the jungles of West Kalimantan, the ensuing search effort would have been much more complicated.

 

So far, there are no indications that QZ8501 was brought down by an act of terrorism.  It is still being officially blamed on the weather.

 

But there appears to be conflicting news on the ground lately.

 

A few days ago, the recovery of a deceased passenger wearing a life preserver was all over the news.  Now, the Indonesian Government is saying that it never happened.

 

Then all of a sudden, the Indonesian Government suspended all Air Asia flights from and to Surabaya.

 

Then early this morning, a news item appeared on my favorite Bahasa Indonesia website that a terror alert for Surabaya was issued by the US Embassy in Jakarta.  It has now disappeared.

 

It, however, still appears on the Bloomberg News website.  So, it is apparently true.

 

In view of these developments, can one accept at face value the current official version of what happened to QZ8501?